All these Permian pipelines are not going to fill with associated gas

The Permian is either going to become a gas play or be overbuilt

More than 11 Bcfd of Permian takeaway capacity is coming online over the next three and a half years — and it’s not going to fill with associated gas production.

After no new Permian gas takeaway capacity was sanctioned between mid-2022 and mid-2024, an unprecedented 9.3 Bcfd of Permian gas pipelines took FID between July 2024 and August 2025. Remarkably, operators then upsized these commitments by a further 2 Bcfd in late 2025.

The first ~4.5 Bcfd of this capacity is due online later this year: ~550 MMcfd from a Gulf Coast Express expansion in the second quarter, along with 2.5 and 1.5 Bcfd from Blackcomb and Hugh Brinson pipelines in the fourth quarter. For E&Ps, it can’t come soon enough: gas takeaway capacity in the basin has been consistently constrained since March 2024, with only a brief period of basis relief following Matterhorn Express Pipeline’s in-service in winter 2024-25.

But this buildout is much larger than what would be needed to accommodate today’s Permian activity, or even a realistic high-drilling case. Either E&Ps will target more gas-weighted acreage or intervals, or Permian takeaway capacity will be consistently underutilized.

How does gas production compare to takeaway capacity currently?