The Solutide FID doesn't have to mean 16 Bcfd of Permian growth

If this project is so sorely needed, why aren't two of WhiteWater's Matterhorn JV partners participating?

Yesterday, WhiteWater, Devon, and others announced 4.5 Bcfd of new Permian gas takeaway capacity via the new Solitude Pipeline: two 48-inch (!) lines to Katy, with one due online in late 2029 and the other in 2030. Permian gas takeaway was already set to grow ~11 Bcfd between mid-2026 and the end of 2029, between the Gulf Coast Express expansion; the in-service of Blackcomb, Hugh Brinson, and Eiger Express; and the Desert Southwest expansion on Transwestern.

Accounting for rising in-basin demand and exports to Mexico, filling that capacity would require 18 Bcfd of dry gas production growth, more than the ~17 Bcfd Appalachia managed in its fastest five-year stretch, from 2011-16. Every gas E&P fears what Permian gas growth could mean for Henry Hub prices. But a record pace of Permian gas production growth would require operators to drill more gas-weighted targets, which Permian E&Ps demurred on this earnings season.

Rather than an expectation that Permian gas production will match the pace of post-FID pipeline buildout, I read this project’s FID as revealing skepticism about Desert Southwest’s effective capacity and its ownership structure as suggesting a change in how Permian E&Ps view the risk-reward of gas takeaway commitments.

Who are the likely shippers?