Was I wrong to be bearish on US LNG?

Reassessing US LNG in light of the war in Iran

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On February 28, US and Israeli forces launched surprise airstrikes on several sites in Iran, killing Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei among other Iranian officials. This attack, along with subsequent Iranian counterstrikes, destabilized the region’s production and especially shipping routes, with attendant impacts on global energy and agricultural markets.

The degree of disruption in global oil and LNG markets, and by extension North American gas markets, depends on when and how the crisis is resolved. But regardless of the ultimate resolution, I’m reevaluating my view that it’s a bad time to be contracting for US LNG. Being an analyst means not just building a forecast but also thinking about how solid its foundations are. I underestimated the likelihood of war in the Middle East; for both LNG-market and oil-market reasons, instability there increases the option value of US LNG.

What are the war’s impacts on LNG markets?